WP3: Role of aerosol and cloud changes for aerosol radiative forcing between 1950 and 2050

Co-led by Ulrike Lohmann (ETHZ) and Michael Schulz ( Met Norway)

This work package aims to study the development of key aerosol components and their physical characteristics as well as cloud changes between 1950 and 2050 using different scenarios.

Specific objectives of this work package include:
1) Determining transient changes in aerosols and clouds and the corresponding effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiative interactions and the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions.


2) Understanding and quantifying the key uncertainties in the aerosol forcing between 1950 and 2050


3) Providing plausible near-future projections of effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiative interactions and the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions.

Comparison of recent CMIP6 model ensemble results compared to downwelling surface radiation measured in the GEBA network (black line), indicating underestimated aerosol radiative effects in Eastern Asia (Moseid et al, ACPD, 2020 in review).